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Tag: University of Colorado

  • Colorado State University and University of Colorado receive EPA grant funds to advance air quality science

    Colorado State University and University of Colorado receive EPA grant funds to advance air quality science

    Awards part of $6 million in research funding to improve Air Quality models

    DENVER — Today, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced that two Colorado universities will receive research grant funding to advance scientific modeling that will contribute to the understanding air quality conditions. The awards are $5,959,842 million in EPA STAR grant funding awarded to nine institutions to improve air quality models used to simulate ozone, particulate matter (PM), regional haze, air toxics, and emerging pollutants.

    Colorado State University will receive $400,000 to gain insights on how emissions from wildfires and volatile chemical products (for example, personal care products, cleaning agents, and coatings) contribute to the formation of fine particles in the atmosphere. The University of Colorado will receive $396,135 to incorporate volatile chemical products compounds to current chemical mechanisms to improve air quality model predictions of ozone in U.S. urban areas.

    “Under President Trump, Americans are breathing the cleanest air ever recorded and we are committed to continuing this progress for decades to come,” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. “This EPA-funded research will further our understanding of air quality and help us continue providing clean air for all Americans, regardless of their zip code.”

    Research supported by these grants will improve air quality models, specifically the component of models that represent how chemicals react in the atmosphere (known as “chemical mechanisms”). This research will advance our understanding of the sources and chemistry of air pollutants and how they move in the atmosphere. It will also inform the development of strategies for improving air quality.

    Photo Credit:MGN Online

     

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  • State provides COVID-19 modeling data

    State provides COVID-19 modeling data

    The state today released additional COVID-19 modeling data to the public. Governor Jared Polis first provided an in-depth analysis of the data during a press conference on March 27. The state will continue to review data as it evolves to inform future policy decisions.

    The modeling data was produced by an expert team that the Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) assembled to assist the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) in understanding the potential course of the pandemic in Colorado. 

    Drawing on expertise from the ColoradoSPH and the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, and the University of Colorado in Denver and Boulder, a team of volunteer experts modeled the pandemic using approaches tailored to Colorado, updating the modeling as the disease continues to spread in the state.

    The team uses a fundamental approach: the SEIR model. The basics of the models are intuitive: prior to infection, individuals are susceptible (S) and once exposed (E) and infected (I) they are contagious, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic; those infected may recover and become resistant (R) or become sufficiently ill to need hospitalization and possibly critical care and to die. This standard model is thus abbreviated as the SEIR model. 

    Another important number in the model is the reproductive number (R0), that is, the average number of new cases generated per infected person at the beginning of the outbreak. (The Governor has referred to this number as the “R naught.”) If that number exceeds one then the infection will spread. Various figures for R0 have been reported at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic from different parts of the world, ranging from about 2 to 5. The reproductive number depends, in part, on the frequency of contacts between infected and uninfected individuals. The goal of social distancing, which we are all experiencing now, is to reduce these contacts and lower the reproductive number with a target value below one so that contagion ends. A critical question is: How much social distancing is needed to control the epidemic, and how long does it need to be in place?

    The tables below provide two sets of numbers provided to CDPHE and the Governor’s Office. The numbers provided are for critical indicators and show the variation by the value of R0 at the beginning of the outbreak and the effectiveness of social distancing at reducing the contact rate, ranging from none to an 80% reduction. When these numbers were calculated, the team found that the R0 value for Colorado was likely above 3. To capture the uncertainty in R0 and the effectiveness of social distancing, estimates are provided for a range of values.

    Model R0 3.5 4.0 with SD 0 to 80

    Model R0 3.0 4.0 SD 0 to 60

     The Colorado modeling team has continued to refine its models as the data accumulate on the course of the pandemic. There are other models that provide estimates for Colorado, but those models are not as closely linked to the state’s data.

    Continue to stay up to date by visiting covid19.colorado.gov.

     

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