Forecast: Near-record Memorial Day Travel

43.8 million Americans to travel over holiday period.

DENVER (May 21, 2024) – AAA projects 43.8 million travelers will head 50 or more miles from home over the Memorial Day travel period from Thursday, May 23 through Monday, May 27, 2024. That represents a 4% increase over last year and, in a mark of how far the travel economy has rebounded since the COVID-19 pandemic, a 2.33% increase over 2019. All told, this Memorial Day will be the second busiest on record. “The busiest Memorial Day holiday weekend in nearly two decades is set to kick off what will likely be a historically well-traveled summer,” said Skyler McKinley, regional director of public affairs for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Remember that travel is fundamentally about economics: Despite stubborn inflation and storm clouds on the international horizon, consumer interest in travel is surging – with trips abroad reaching their highest level in recent memory.” Economic trends influencing the national travel forecast • Consumer resilience is evident as spending growth continues, with a notable increase of approximately 5.2% over the previous year. • Real GDP growth has remained modest, with a slight uptick of around 2.5% from last year, reflecting a slow but steady economic movement. • Consumer sentiment has significantly improved over 2023, soaring by 17.4%. • At a national level, gas prices for April have remained in the same range as previous years’ figures, averaging $3.63.

Auto Travel & Colorado Gas Prices AAA projects nearly 38.4 million will travel by car over Memorial Day weekend, the highest number for that holiday since AAA began tracking in 2000. The national number of drivers this year is up 4% compared to last year and 1.9% higher than in 2019. During last year’s holiday weekend, Colorado gas prices averaged $3.47 per gallon. Today, the state average is $3.35 – with prices expected to climb in the wake of Colorado’s major refinery’s recent switch to the production of Reformulated Gasoline (RFG) as part of an EPA mandate  stemming from severe ozone pollution on the Northern Front Range. “Drivers should expect continued volatility at the pump as the summer driving season gets underway,” McKinley said. “While much will be written about RFG, the real wildcard remains the cost of oil and there are now two wars – in the Middle East and Ukraine – that could roil the markets.” Airports are bracing for a spike in travelers . AAA expects 3.51 million Americans to travel by air this holiday weekend, an increase of 4.8% over last year and 9% jump compared to 2019. This will be the most crowded Memorial Day weekend at airports since 2005, when 3.64 million flew for the holiday as the travel industry finally recovered from 9/11. Nearly two million people are expected to travel by other modes of transportation, including buses, cruises, and trains . AAA projects 1.9 million people will take these other modes of transportation, an increase of 5.6% compared to last year. “This category took the biggest hit during the pandemic,” McKinley said. “Now – five years later – we’re back to 2019 numbers. Leading the charge is the resurgence in both ocean and river cruising, which came back extremely strong and continue to gain popularity with nearly every demographic.” Costs Stabilize According to AAA booking data, the average price for a round-trip domestic flight will cost $778. That’s 2% more than last year’s holiday weekend. International flights are 4% more expensive – averaging $1485 for a round-trip ticket. Several factors play into how much travelers pay for airfare, including destination, number of stops, and fare class. For example, passengers who book nonstop flights with seat selection and carry-on bags included will likely pay more than those who select basic economy with a layover. In reviewing all hotel bookings with AAA, domestic hotels are 5% cheaper this Memorial Day weekend compared to last. The total average cost per stay (which can be multiple nights) is $500. International hotels are about the same as last year. The average cost per stay is $660. Domestic car rentals are 17% cheaper this Memorial Day weekend compared to last. Average total cost for a rental (which is typically for a few days) is $439. International car rentals are 16% cheaper this Memorial Day weekend compared to last. Average total cost for a rental (which is typically for a few days) is $617. • Cities with the highest rental demand this Memorial Day weekend are Orlando, Denver, Atlanta, Boston, and Las Vegas. • The busiest pick-up dates are Thursday, May 23 and Friday, May 24, with rental reservations averaging five days in length. • The most popular vehicle classes reserved for Memorial Day weekend are mid-size and full-size sedans and small and mid-size SUVs. Denver Among Top Destinations Denver ranks sixth among domestic destinations, as travelers flock here to access other parts of Colorado and the American west via Denver International Airport. Otherwise, travelers are seeking theme parks and entertainment venues in Orlando, New York, Las Vegas, and Southern California. Seattle, Anchorage, and Vancouver rank high because of the popularity of Alaska cruises this time of year. Florida beaches and cruise ports will also be packed. Congestion INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says drivers leaving Thursday or Friday should hit the road early to avoid mixing with commuters. Travelers going back home on Sunday or Monday should avoid the afternoon hours when return trips will peak. The worst congestion in Colorado will be on southbound I-25 from Fort Collins to Denver on Sunday at 4:15pm – with a travel time of 1 hour, 24 minutes, or 56% above normal. Travel Trends As travelers make plans for summer and beyond, AAA Travel has identified emerging trends in: • Bucket Lists: Travelers taking once-in-a-lifetime trips and working through their wish-lists. • Milestones: Families booking anniversary, retirement, and family reunion trips. • Asia: More travelers interested in visiting Asia, especially Japan. • Solo Trips: More people, especially women, interested in traveling by themselves or with other like-minded individuals. • Luxury Vacations: More travelers seeking high-end cruises and tours. • Trains: Many travelers interested in rail vacations across New England, Canada, and Europe. • Adventure in Nature: Travelers booking trips to Antarctica, Africa, and South Pacific. Travel Agent Survey A recent survey of AAA travel agents highlights topics travelers are frequently discussing when booking trips: • Travel Insurance: 51% of agents say more travelers are interested in protecting their trips. • Cruises: 77% of agents say travelers are interested in ocean cruises and 67% say river cruises. • All-Inclusive: 70% of agents say travelers are interested in all-inclusive vacations. Methodology In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000. Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken. The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of April 15, 2024. AAA clubs distributed surveys to a random sample of their travel agents between March 18 and March 29, 2024 to understand recent traveler trends over the past 60 days. 186 AAA agent responses were collected from 13 AAA clubs (representing 97% of AAA membership overall as of February 2024).