Majority of states are enjoying pre-pandemic levels of prosperity according to new report by Milken Center for Advancing the American Dream and Legatum Institute
WASHINGTON, November 15, 2022 – Colorado ranks tenth in overall prosperity according to the American Dream Prosperity Index (ADPI), released this month by the Milken Center for Advancing the American Dream in partnership with Legatum Institute. The United States continues to see a rise in prosperity, even as we faced the long-term impacts of a pandemic and the economic realities of rising inflation and a shrinking economy. But while the overall trend points to a prosperous nation, prosperity continues to be unequally distributed regionally, often eluding rural communities and Black Americans.
Prosperity is a multidimensional concept which the American Dream Prosperity Index seeks to measure, explore, and understand. The framework of the Index captures prosperity through three equally-weighted domains which are the essential foundations of prosperity — Inclusive Societies, Open Economies, and Empowered People. These domains are made up of 11 pillars of prosperity, built upon 49 actionable policy areas, and are underpinned by more than 200 reliable indicators.
Colorado rounds out the top 10 states in overall prosperity. The state’s strengths include ranking first in business environment, seventh in education, eighth in governance, ninth in natural environment, and 11th in social capital. According to the Index, Colorado could focus its improvement on the safety and security (ranked 41st), infrastructure (ranked 34th), and personal freedom (ranked 28th) pillars. Since 2012, Colorado has seen the most improvement in social capital.
“While our nation faces many challenges including record inflation, increased gun violence, and a deteriorating mental health landscape, we are encouraged by the resiliency of communities across our country as they work to create prosperous lives for their residents,” said the Center’s President Kerry Healey. “The American Dream Prosperity Index was founded on the principle that better data leads to better decisions and outcomes. It is our goal to make this report one of the most important tools for local, state and federal lawmakers and civic leaders.”
“We are encouraged by the steady rebound of prosperity post-pandemic, even in the face of unique regional challenges,” said Legatum Institute CEO Philippa Stroud. “The foundations of the U.S. economy continue to stand strong, particularly due to the innovative entrepreneurial mindset that Americans are known for. This forward momentum highlights the genuine push towards prosperity in the face of continued adversity.”
Across the country, millions of Americans are facing challenges that continue to threaten prosperity. According to the 2022 ADPI, since 2012, all states apart from North Dakota have increased their prosperity, but prosperity remains unequally shared across and within states. For most people, 2022 has been a year of progress as the nation continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and as the economy strengthens. However, this increase in prosperity is tempered by rising gun violence in nearly every state. Also detrimental to the nation’s prosperity is the deteriorating mental health of America, marked by a rise in suicides and opioid-related deaths, even as Americans’ overall health continues to improve.
ADPI’s key findings also point to waning social cohesion across the country as another roadblock to U.S. prosperity. This is seen in the decreasing number of Americans who have helped a stranger, donated money to charity, volunteered or frequently talked to a neighbor.
ADPI National Patterns toward Greater Prosperity:
- In 2022, 26 states have recovered to pre-pandemic levels of overall prosperity, with Oklahoma, New Jersey and New Mexico seeing the biggest improvement. Reasons for the improvement in these states vary, but economic factors such as the increasing number of entrepreneurs played a key role in the post-pandemic rebound and bodes well for further improvement.
- Over the past decade, Americans’ physical health have improved. Since 2012, rates of smoking have fallen by nearly a third, excessive alcohol use has decreased by 17% and pain reliever misuse has decreased by 21%.
- The long-term downward trend in property crime is an encouraging development across the United States, with all but six states improving over the past decade.
ADPI Key Findings:
- While U.S. prosperity rebounded post-pandemic in 2022, current record inflation threatens this recovery
- In 2022, Prosperity has increased in every state except North Dakota, but this progress remains unequally distributed within state and local communities and across ethnic groups
- High and rising gun violence in nearly every state is impacting American’s individual sense of security and prosperity
- Mental health has deteriorated in every state, including increased deaths of despair
- A continuing decline in social cohesion and group relationships at all levels of society creates barriers to prosperity.
Although the data does highlight a substantial number of barricades to prosperity, ADPI can be used to craft unique solutions across all levels of government. A deeper examination of prosperity, prompted by the Index, can reveal individual issues that each state can tackle in order to advance the prosperity of its citizens. This push towards the development of local data-led initiatives, rather than a ‘one size fits all’ approach, is essential for transformation across the country.
The Index has been designed to benefit a wide range of users, including state and county leaders, policymakers, investors, business leaders, philanthropists, journalists, researchers and U.S. citizens.
View the 2022 ADPI here.
View Washington’s state profile here.
View the state-by-state prosperity rankings here.
View state-by-state rankings in specific categories by clicking on the category below.
Category: Colorado News
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Report: Colorado Ranks 10th in Prosperity Despite Pandemic and Economic Challenges
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States Spending the Most on Health and Hospitals
The challenges facing the healthcare sector in the U.S. are numerous. The U.S. lags behind other developed nations on many key metrics of health, including life expectancy, chronic disease burden, and avoidable deaths. The population has been growing older on average with the aging of the Baby Boomers, creating increased demand for health services. Longtime public health challenges like obesity, substance abuse, and mental illness have wide-ranging impacts on Americans’ overall health and well-being. And in the last few years, the COVID-19 pandemic has placed unusually heavy strain on healthcare providers and hospitals.
With these many interlocking and compounding challenges, the U.S. spends heavily to support the healthcare system. According to federal data, national health expenditures in the U.S. total $4.1 trillion per year, making up nearly 20% of the nation’s GDP. The bulk of this spending comes from the federal government, which contributes 36.3% of expenditures, and U.S. households, which account for 26.1%.
Often underappreciated in discussions of the U.S. health system is the role of state and local governments. States and localities frequently fund public hospitals, health inspections, mental health and substance abuse programs, water and air quality programs, and payments to private hospitals for public health services. State and local governments funded 14.3% of total national health expenditures in 2020.
This spending is one of the most significant budgetary responsibilities of state and local governments. Health and hospitals represent the third largest spending category for state and local governments, behind only public welfare and elementary and secondary education. Collectively, governments spend $345 billion on health and hospitals each year, accounting for nearly 10% of all state and local spending.
State and local spending on health and hospitals on a per-capita basis has also grown over time. In the year 2000, state and local governments spent $678 per capita on health and hospitals in inflation-adjusted dollars. By 2020, that figure had risen to $1,040—an increase of more than 50%.
However, this trend has not played out the same in all locations. In fact, 13 states have seen a decline in health and hospital spending per capita over the last decade, led by Arizona, where spending has declined by more than 50%. In contrast, other states have seen rapid growth in health spending. Vermont’s inflation-adjusted state and local spending per capita more than doubled between 2010 and 2020, from $355 to $730, and Utah’s 96.2% rate of growth was not far behind.
Just as trends in health spending have varied by geography, total spending also looks different from state to state. Nationwide, states and localities spend around 9.9% of their budgets on health and hospitals, at a total of $1,047 per capita. But a number of states and localities spend well above these figures, including Wyoming, where the per-capita spending is nearly triple the national average, and South Carolina, where health and hospital spending represents nearly 20% of state and local expenditures.
The data used in this analysis is from the U.S. Census Bureau. To determine the states that spend the most on health and hospitals, researchers at HowtoHome.com calculated health and hospital spending as a share of total spending. In the event of a tie, the state with the greater total health and hospital spending per capita was ranked higher.
The analysis found that health and hospital spending in Colorado amounts to an annual $723 per capita—6.9% of the state’s total spending—compared to the national average of $1,047. Here is a summary of the data for Colorado:
- Health & hospital spending as a share of total: 6.9%
- Total health & hospital spending per capita: $723
- Total health & hospital spending: $4,196,424,000
- Total direct expenditures: $60,879,680,000
For reference, here are the statistics for the entire United States:
- Health & hospital spending as a share of total: 9.9%
- Total health & hospital spending per capita: $1,047
- Total health & hospital spending: $345,008,758,000
- Total direct expenditures: $3,494,136,935,000
For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on HowtoHome.com’s website: https://www.howtohome.com/us-states-that-spend-most-on-health-and-hospitals/
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Colorado Had the 10th Lowest Credit Card Delinquency Rate in 2021
Access to credit is an important resource for managing personal finances, whether to pay for major purchases, serve as a bridge to cover regular expenses, or smooth out spending when something unexpected happens. But reliance on debt like credit cards can also mean racking up large balances that are hard to pay off. In the tumultuous economy of the last few years, consumers have experienced both highs and lows when it comes to credit.
Despite a spike in unemployment at the outset of COVID-19, many households fared well financially during the early phases of the pandemic. Government relief programs like stimulus checks, expanded unemployment benefits, and mortgage and student loan forbearance gave a boost to household finances, while consumers spent less due to lockdowns and concerns about the virus. This allowed debt holders to make progress toward becoming current on payments. Credit card balances in the U.S. declined by more than $120 billion in 2020 and another $28 billion from December 2020 to April 2021.
Inflation has reared its head over the last 18 months, however, putting new pressure on families. Prices for essentials like food, energy, and shelter have risen rapidly and remained at elevated levels. Savings rates, which had increased to historic heights earlier in the pandemic, are now on the decline, leaving households less in reserve to help weather the effects of inflation. As a result, consumers are turning to credit cards to help manage costs: aggregate limits on credit cards increased by $100 billion from Q1 to Q2 of 2022, while credit card balances increased by $46 billion over the same period.
Credit card debt today totals $890 billion, which still trails a pre-pandemic peak of $930 billion in Q4 of 2019. But debt has surged over the last year. Credit card debt was 9.1% higher in Q1 of 2022 than the year before and 12.7% higher in Q2. The latter figure represents the fastest rate of growth for credit card balances in nearly 20 years.
With the amount of credit card debt rising again, cardholders are also increasingly at risk of falling behind on payments. The share of credit card debt in serious delinquency remains at historically low levels after declining across 2020 and 2021. But after two straight years of decline, the percentage of newly delinquent credit card debt rose in the first two quarters of 2022, from 4.1% at the end of last year to 4.76% today.
Credit card reliance and behavior vary across the country, meaning that rates of usage and delinquency can look different by geography. Many of the states with the highest credit card delinquency rates are found in the Southeast and Southwest, which have relatively low incomes compared to the rest of the U.S. While low-income residents in these areas are less likely to have a card and tend to have lower balances, they are also more likely to struggle with paying off credit card debts.
Notably, 3 states in the Southeast and Southwest regions — Nevada (12%), Florida (10.66%), and Arkansas (10.23%) — stand out as having more than 10% of credit card debt 90+ days delinquent, which are the 3 highest delinquency rates in the nation. In contrast, the Upper Midwest and New England tend to have the lowest rates of delinquency, highlighted by Wisconsin (5.34%), Minnesota (5.78%), and Vermont (6.03%).
The data used in this analysis is from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Experian. To determine the states with the highest delinquency rates, researchers at Upgraded Points calculated the share of credit card balances at least 90 days delinquent as of the fourth quarter of 2021. In the event of a tie, the state with the greater total credit card debt per capita was ranked higher. The percentage point change in the credit card delinquency rate was calculated by comparing Q4 2021 to Q4 of 2019.
Here is a summary of the data for Colorado:
- Credit card delinquency rate (90+ days): 6.57%
- Change since pre-pandemic (percentage points): +0.11
- Per capita credit card debt: $3,480
- Credit card debt as share of all non-mortgage debt: 19.3%
- Average credit score: 728
For reference, here are the statistics for the entire United States:
- Credit card delinquency rate (90+ days): 8.22%
- Change since pre-pandemic (percentage points): +0.10
- Per capita credit card debt: $3,060
- Credit card debt as share of all non-mortgage debt: 18.4%
- Average credit score: 714
For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, you can find the original report on Upgraded Points’s website: https://upgradedpoints.com/credit-cards/credit-card-delinquency-rates-by-state/
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View the first draft of Colorado’s Wolf Restoration and Management Plan at a virtual meeting in December
DENVER – The draft Colorado Wolf Restoration and Management Plan will be available for review by the public for the first time on Dec. 9, 2022. Following the presentation of the Plan, the CPW Commission will discuss and take feedback from the public at five upcoming meetings around Colorado.
Background
State statute 33-2-105.8 directs the Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission to:- Develop a plan to reintroduce and manage gray wolves in Colorado;
- Take necessary steps to begin reintroduction no later than Dec. 31, 2023, on designated lands west of the Continental Divide; and
- Pay fair compensation for livestock losses caused by gray wolves
Beginning in April 2021, CPW contracted with Keystone Policy Center to conduct the public involvement effort.
CPW worked with Keystone Policy Center to hold 47 public meetings in 2021, collecting feedback from more than 3,400 Coloradans.
Additionally, CPW appointed two advisory bodies: a Technical Working Group (TWG) (contributes expertise towards the development of conservation objectives, management strategies and damage prevention and compensation planning); and a Stakeholder Advisory Group (SAG) to provide recommendations to staff and the CPW Commission as they took on the drafting of the Plan.
Following the Dec. 9 presentation of the draft Plan, the CPW Commission will discuss and take feedback from the public at five upcoming meetings around Colorado.
“All Coloradans interested in wolf restoration should plan to virtually attend this presentation or view the recording online at a time that is most convenient for you,” said CPW Acting Director Heather Dugan. “Whether you’ve already submitted your feedback to CPW as one of the more than 3,400 Coloradans we heard from at public meetings over the past year or not, we’re encouraging you to look at the draft plan and submit your input at a public meeting in January and February,” Dugan said.
Dec. 9, 2022 – Presentation of the Draft Plan (virtual meeting)
Zoom/YouTube – 9 a.m. – 4 p.m. (approximate)
The draft Plan will be posted online at wolfengagementco.org on Dec. 9, 2022. At the Dec. 9 virtual Commission meeting, CPW will walk through the draft Plan. Time will be provided for Commissioner questions. A form for public comment will be posted at wolfengagementco.org on Dec. 9 and will remain open through Feb. 22, 2023.
There will not be an opportunity for oral comments from the public at this meeting, but the presentation will kick-off the public input process. Five statewide hearings will be held to acquire information from the public to be considered in developing the Plan. The hearing dates and locations are listed below with approximate times:
Jan. 19, 2023 – Colorado Springs – 8 a.m. – 2 p.m.
Jan. 25, 2023 – Gunnison – 8 a.m. – 4 p.m.
Feb. 7, 2023 – Rifle – 8 a.m. – 4 p.m.
Feb. 16, 2023 – Virtual via Zoom – 5:30 – 8:30 p.m.
Feb. 22, 2023 – Denver – 8 a.m. – 3 p.m.
The in-person hearings will begin with CPW providing a brief overview of the plan. All the hearings will provide time for Commissioner questions and discussion.
April 6, 2023 – Final Draft Plan and Regulations (Step 1 of 2) (in-person meeting) Location TBD, 8 a.m. – 5 p.m.
CPW staff will present the final draft Plan and associated regulations (Step 1 of 2). In-person public comment will be taken in a similar manner to the hearings and online comments may be made through wolfengagementco.org. The meeting will be streamed to YouTube to listen to live or by recording.
May 3 – 4, 2023 – Final Plan and Regulations (Step 2 of 2) Approval (in-person meeting) Glenwood Springs – Times TBD
Commissioners will vote on approval of the final Plan and associated wolf regulations.
Visit CPW’s Stay Informed page and sign up for the Wolf Reintroduction eNews to stay up to date with CPW’s Wolf Restoration efforts. -
Celebrate the holiday with an outdoor adventure on Fresh Air Friday
Barr Lake State Park DENVER – Thanksgiving marks the beginning of the busy winter holiday season, so Colorado Parks and Wildlife invites people to spend time outdoors this Friday. On Nov. 25, CPW is pleased to offer free entry to all Colorado state parks on Fresh Air Friday.
This year marks the 8th annual Fresh Air Friday event that encourages people to take some time over Thanksgiving weekend to create new outdoor memories and live life outside. A Fresh Air Friday celebration can be as big or as small of an outdoor adventure as you choose. To begin planning your outdoor experience, visit the Colorado state park finder or use the free Colorado Trail Explorer (COTREX) mobile app to discover local parks, trail systems and open spaces.
Visitors should be aware that Friday, Nov. 25 is a state holiday and some park visitor centers may not be open or fully staffed. Enforcement personnel will be patrolling the parks but some visitor services may be limited.
Throughout the year, CPW offers family friendly activities, fun-filled adventures and opportunities to learn and try new things at all of our state parks. Visit the CPW Event Calendar to find a Fresh Air Friday activity near you. Please call the park visitor center ahead of your visit for hours, closures or other information. -
State health department celebrates Colorado Recycles Week
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment is pleased to celebrate Colorado Recycles Week and is committed to achieving a 45% diversion rate by 2036.Here is a sampling of the the steps we’ve already taken to move the needle:-
In September, we released the Statewide Organics Management Plan in partnership with the Colorado Department of Agriculture. This plan provides a detailed analysis of the current state of organics waste management and provides goals and recommendations for increasing the diversion of this waste stream going forward. By diverting this material through processes like composting, not only are we reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but we are also turning it into a valuable resource.
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Colorado is now poised to address the need for local recycling markets and attract end-market users and entrepreneurs to the state after the passage of the Waste Diversion and Circular Economy Development Center. The Center will grow existing, and create new, recycling and composting end markets, attract remanufacturers and entrepreneurs to the state, and provide necessary infrastructure, logistics, and marketing to create a sustainable circular economy for recycled commodities. We are currently soliciting proposals through January 17, 2023. If you are interested in learning more, please review the request for proposals document.
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Earlier this year, Gov. Jared Polis signed the new Producer Responsibility Program for Statewide Recycling Act into law. It requires producers of packaging, paper products, and food service ware to fund a statewide recycling system to recycle those materials. Two of the program objectives are to develop a convenient, cost-effective statewide recycling system with free and equitable recycling for all residents, and ensure the program equitably meets the needs of local Colorado communities and businesses.
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Did you know you can recycle your paint for free in Colorado? One gallon of improperly disposed paint has the ability to pollute up to 250,000 gallons of water. The Colorado Paint Stewardship Program “Paint Care” is here to prevent that, by supporting the free recycling of unused paint. Since 2015, PaintCare has collected over 5.1 million gallons of unused paint and has established 185 free drop-off sites in Colorado.
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We fund statewide waste diversion projects and provide rebates for community recycling centers through our Recycling Resources Economic Opportunity Grant Program. The department has awarded over $25 million to develop recycling and composting infrastructure and promote sustainable behavior change in communities across Colorado. The most recent request for applications opened November 7 and is focused on “Building Opportunities to Maximize Waste Diversion and Create Jobs in Colorado”.
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The Front Range Waste Diversion Grant Program specifically targets the 13 Front Range counties where 80% of the state’s waste is generated. To date, the grant program has awarded approximately $11,288,000 in grant funding. The grant program is requesting applications through December 9, 2022 for projects that focus on moving Front Range communities up the “zero waste ladder.”
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To further increase the diversion rate, the Department is investing in creating a local demand for recycled materials to advance a circular economy by supporting a fourth cohort of Colorado NextCycle, a program designed to boost remanufacturing solutions for recycled content in Colorado. We are accepting applications from interested teams through December 1, 2022.
We cannot improve the state’s waste diversion rate without the help of Colorado residents. Here are three easy ways for you to make a difference:-
Find a paint recycling drop-off near you to recycle your leftover paint.
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Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission to meet November 17 – 18
GATEWAY, Colo. – At a hybrid in-person/virtual meeting in Gateway, the Colorado Parks and Wildlife Commission will make final considerations on revising personal floatation device types to match U.S. Coast Guard changes, removing the high-use fee at certain parks, changing the daily vehicle pass fee to $10.00 at all state parks, making modifications to the Centennial pass requirements and documentation needed, removing Panorama Point at Golden Gate Canyon from the designated event facility list, revising regulations to provide discounted camping rates for seniors who purchase the non-motor vehicle individual annual pass and adopting regulation for the replacement of a lost or stolen non-motor vehicle individual annual pass.
The Commission will also make final considerations on revising the walleye bag and possession limits at Rifle Gap, revising a fishing restriction in Vallecito Creek, expanding the southwest youth extended season for fall turkey to all available GMUs in the state, adopting regulation to allow air-gun hunting of turkey in the fall and late seasons, annual changes to turkey seasons and quotas, revising boundary names for a Game Management Unit and a Bighorn Sheep Unit, revising license fees and license agent commission rates, modifications to the low-income annual Colorado State Wildlife Area pass and modifying the limited license application and drawing allocation processes for deer, elk, pronghorn and bear to include a rolling three-year average for licenses requiring ten or more preference points.
The Commission will open an annual review of big game provisions including: amending the definition of an adult novice hunter and revising the license list classification for the adult novice hunting license and adult novice ranching for wildlife license, modifying the GMU boundaries for 123, 124, 125, 128 and 129, modifying the GMU boundaries for 008 and 191, modifying the hunting closure on Mount Evans, as well as modifying hunt codes and licenses related to deer, elk, pronghorn, moose and mountain goat.
The meeting is scheduled to begin at 8 a.m. on Thu., November 17 with a Commission tour of Outdoor Wilderness Lab (OWL) campus and adjourn at 5:15 p.m. The commission will reconvene at 8:30 a.m. on Fri., November 18 and adjourn at 10:30 a.m. The meeting will be streamed live on CPW’s YouTube page.
Additional agenda items include:- Consideration and approval of Real Estate Project 20-032
- Keystone Policy Center and CPW updates on wolf planning
- Public engagement strategy for the draft wolf plan
- RBS-9 Arkansas River Bighorn Sheep Herd Management Plan
- D-28 Arkansas River Deer Herd Management Plan
- D-33 Mesa de Maya Deer Herd Management Plan
- Department of Natural Resources update
- Department of Agriculture update
- Great Outdoors Colorado update
- Financial update
A complete agenda along with all materials for public review for this meeting can be found on the CPW website. The public is encouraged to email written comments to the commission at . Details on providing public comments for virtual meetings are available on the CPW website.
The commission meets regularly and travels to communities around the state to facilitate public participation. Anyone can listen to commission meetingsthrough the CPW website. This opportunity keeps constituents informed about the development of regulations and how the commission works with Colorado Parks and Wildlife staff to manage the parks, wildlife and outdoor recreation programs administered by the agency. Find out more about the commission on the CPW website.
The next commission meeting is scheduled to take place on December 9. -
Veterans and active military get free entry into Colorado state parks on Nov. 11
DENVER – As a thank you to U.S. military members, Colorado Parks and Wildlife offers veterans, active-duty military and the National Guard free admission to all Colorado state parks on Nov. 11, 2022.
Veterans and military members, residents and non-residents, can visit any Colorado state park for free by showing proof of military service. Vehicles displaying a Colorado disabled veteran or Purple Heart license plate receive free entry to all state parks year-round.
The free daily parks pass provides a chance to experience Colorado’s state parks and the diverse wildlife and terrain they showcase. All other park fees remain in effect, including camping reservations, boat and off-highway vehicle registrations, and hunting and fishing licenses.
CPW also offers military benefits for outdoor activities to active duty military, veterans and disabled veterans. Programs include free admission to state parks on Veterans Day, free admission to all state parks in August, year-round free entry to all state parks to residents who qualify for Colorado Disabled Veterans or Purple Heart license plates and free small game and fishing licenses for qualified disabled veterans. CPW also offers a Columbine Passwhich offers reduced park entrance fees to disabled Colorado residents.
For more information about Colorado state parks, visit the CPW website.
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Exodus of incumbents brings change to state legislatures
By DAVID A. LIEB
Associated PressMore than one-quarter of state lawmakers whose seats are up for election across the U.S. are guaranteed to be gone from office next year _ a statistic certain to grow when the votes are counted from the November general election.
A combination of retirements, term limits, redistricting changes and primary defeats _ especially among Republicans facing conservative challengers _ already has driven turnover in state capitols to its highest rate in more than a decade.
More incumbents will lose Tuesday, as voters decide nearly 6,300 state legislative races in 46 states.
“There are going to be a lot of new faces in legislative chambers across the country,” said Ben Williams, principal for the elections and redistricting program at the National Conference of State Legislatures.
The changing composition of state legislatures could have significant implications for public policy. Though the federal government often garners more attention, state legislatures hold the power to ban or allow abortion, set rules for future elections, raise or reduce various taxes and determine what gets taught in public schools, among other things.
This election is the first since districts were redrawn to account for population shifts noted by the 2020 census. Post-redistricting elections often see an uptick in retirements and defeats as incumbents opt against running in new areas or get matched up against each other.
But this year’s turnover rate _ already above 26% _ is ahead of the pace from the last post-redistricting election in 2012 and more than one-quarter higher than the average over the past decade, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from the election tracking organization Ballotpedia.
One reason is that a greater percentage of incumbents didn’t seek re-election this year. But that alone doesn’t explain it.
While the rate of Democratic primary losses declined slightly from 2012, the loss rate for Republican incumbents rose from 4.7% a decade ago to 6.2% this year. Many of those GOP lawmakers lost to challengers aligned with former President Donald Trump and portray themselves as more conservative on such issues as election integrity, transgender policies and school instruction.
Heading into the general election, Republicans held majorities in both legislative chambers in 30 states compared with 17 for Democrats. Two states _ Minnesota and Virginia _ had split legislative majorities. Nebraska’s Legislature is officially nonpartisan.
When including governors, Republicans had full control in 23 states and Democrats in 14, with the others divided.
History suggests this should be a good year for Republicans. That’s because the president’s party _ in this case, the Democrats _ typically suffers a backlash of disapproval during midterm elections, losing legislative seats. The public mood appears sour again this year. The percentage of people concerned about their financial wellbeing has risen, and just 25% say the country is headed in the right direction, according to an October poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
“The top concern for voters overwhelmingly is the economy and cost of living,” said Andrew Romeo, communications director for the Republican State Leadership Committee, which supports state legislative candidates.
But a summer U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning the national right to abortion _ and leaving such decisions to states _ added a twist to election-year politics and provided a new campaign angle for Democrats.
Abortion is front and center in Michigan, one of the nation’s biggest legislative battlegrounds.
Democrats hope a Michigan ballot proposal making abortion a constitutional right will drive left-leaning voters to also cast ballots in key legislative races. New state House and Senate districts, drawn for the first time by an independent citizens commission, give Democrats a greater shot than the former districts drawn by the Republican-led Legislature.
The new Senate District 35, for example, takes in parts of several previous districts, extending eastward from Midland to Saginaw Bay. Democrats have run ads asserting the Republican candidate, state Rep. Annette Glenn, “wants to ban abortion, even in cases of rape or incest.” Republican ads pair Democratic candidate Kristen McDonald Rivet with Biden while denouncing “reckless spending and out-of-control inflation.”
Which message compels more turnout than the other remains to be seen.
“I think the big question is what will the composition of the electorate look like,” said Jessica Post, president of the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.
Another state targeted by both Democrats and Republicans is Minnesota, where Republicans hold a slim Senate majority and Democrats a narrow House majority. Each party wants to win full control of the Legislature.
Republicans also are attempting to flip Democratic-led legislative chambers in Colorado, Maine, Nevada and Oregon.
Democrats hope the New Hampshire Legislature, which frequently flips control, could turn their way this year. Democrats also are trying to make legislative gains in Arizona and Pennsylvania, two states that are pivotal in presidential elections.
Democratic- and Republican-aligned groups have collectively poured a couple hundred million dollars into legislative races in what’s become a costly biennial battle for power. Yet both parties are downplaying their potential for sweeping victories.
“If we’re able to preserve and hold the number of chambers that Democrats have right now, that would be a good night,” Post said.
Speaking for Republicans, Romeo also described a good outcome as “keeping everything we have.“ He added: “A great night would be if we are able to expand and flip a chamber in one of these Democrat-held states.”
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Survey: Colorado voters have faith in statewide elections, concerns about the economy
Nov. 2, 2022—More than two-thirds of Coloradans believe that elections in the state will be fair and accurate in 2022—although the numbers vary among voters from party to party, according to a new survey from the University of Colorado Boulder.
The results appear less than a week before voters head to the polls for the Nov. 8 midterms. They’re part of the latest Colorado Political Climate Survey, an annual effort to gauge how Centennial State residents are feeling about a range of topics—from the economy to abortion and several hotly-contested statewide elections.
Nationally, election integrity has been a hot-button issue in the past two years. Most voters in Colorado, however, expressed confidence that their votes will count, said Anand Sokhey, director of the American Politics Research Lab (APRL), which leads the survey.
Roughly 71% of Coloradans believe that elections in the state will be conducted “fairly and accurately,” including 92% of Democrats, 57% of Republicans and 53% of Independents. Colorado voters may have less faith in elections elsewhere in the U.S.: Just 54% overall express similar optimism for votes nationwide.
“Republicans and Independents express considerably less optimism on this point than do Democrats,” said Sokhey, associate professor in the Department of Political Science. “This suggests that the narratives that have been circulating since the 2020 election are clearly still in play this election season.”
Numerous investigations have shown that no widespread voter fraud took place during the 2020 presidential election.
In their 2022 survey, Sokhey and his colleagues worked with the company YouGov to poll more than 700 Colorado voters between Oct. 11-19.
The group’s findings point to a rare bit of good news for Democrats who have faced declining poll numbers in other key states around the country. Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, for example, could be on the path to win reelection, leading Republican Heidi Ganahl 57% to 42% in the new poll. Secretary of State Jena Griswold and U.S. Senator Michael Bennet also hold moderate leads over their Republican challengers.
“Although the Democratic party is facing strong headwinds nationally in these midterms, Democrats in statewide contests in Colorado seem to be faring well,” Sokhey said.
The state of the economy seems to be top of mind among voters from the Eastern Plains to the Front Range and Western Slope. According to the survey, only 16% of Coloradans rank economic conditions in the U.S. “excellent” or “good,” with nearly two-thirds opting for “fair” or “poor.”
But voters are more optimistic about the state of the local economy, Sokhey said. Roughly 33% of residents rank conditions in Colorado “excellent” or “good.”
