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The I-70 Scout & Eastern Colorado News

Tag: Boulder

  • State provides COVID-19 modeling data

    State provides COVID-19 modeling data

    The state today released additional COVID-19 modeling data to the public. Governor Jared Polis first provided an in-depth analysis of the data during a press conference on March 27. The state will continue to review data as it evolves to inform future policy decisions.

    The modeling data was produced by an expert team that the Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) assembled to assist the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) in understanding the potential course of the pandemic in Colorado. 

    Drawing on expertise from the ColoradoSPH and the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, and the University of Colorado in Denver and Boulder, a team of volunteer experts modeled the pandemic using approaches tailored to Colorado, updating the modeling as the disease continues to spread in the state.

    The team uses a fundamental approach: the SEIR model. The basics of the models are intuitive: prior to infection, individuals are susceptible (S) and once exposed (E) and infected (I) they are contagious, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic; those infected may recover and become resistant (R) or become sufficiently ill to need hospitalization and possibly critical care and to die. This standard model is thus abbreviated as the SEIR model. 

    Another important number in the model is the reproductive number (R0), that is, the average number of new cases generated per infected person at the beginning of the outbreak. (The Governor has referred to this number as the “R naught.”) If that number exceeds one then the infection will spread. Various figures for R0 have been reported at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic from different parts of the world, ranging from about 2 to 5. The reproductive number depends, in part, on the frequency of contacts between infected and uninfected individuals. The goal of social distancing, which we are all experiencing now, is to reduce these contacts and lower the reproductive number with a target value below one so that contagion ends. A critical question is: How much social distancing is needed to control the epidemic, and how long does it need to be in place?

    The tables below provide two sets of numbers provided to CDPHE and the Governor’s Office. The numbers provided are for critical indicators and show the variation by the value of R0 at the beginning of the outbreak and the effectiveness of social distancing at reducing the contact rate, ranging from none to an 80% reduction. When these numbers were calculated, the team found that the R0 value for Colorado was likely above 3. To capture the uncertainty in R0 and the effectiveness of social distancing, estimates are provided for a range of values.

    Model R0 3.5 4.0 with SD 0 to 80

    Model R0 3.0 4.0 SD 0 to 60

     The Colorado modeling team has continued to refine its models as the data accumulate on the course of the pandemic. There are other models that provide estimates for Colorado, but those models are not as closely linked to the state’s data.

    Continue to stay up to date by visiting covid19.colorado.gov.

     

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  • On eve of Super Tuesday, study sheds light on how people make choices

    On eve of Super Tuesday, study sheds light on how people make choices

    On Super Tuesday, Democratic voters from Colorado and across the United States will face a serious decision: Sanders or Warren? Biden, Klobuchar or Bloomberg?

    Now, a new study taps into mathematics to probe how people make those kinds of fraught choices—in particular, how hypothetical, and completely rational, individuals might select between two options as they navigate through a noisy social environment.  

    It turns out that not making a choice can sometimes be as revealing as picking a side, report researchers from the University of Colorado Boulder and the University of Houston. When the people around you are indecisive, for example, that can have a big influence on your own choices. 

    “Say you have a friend who has been a staunch Sanders supporter in the past,” said Zachary Kilpatrick, a coauthor of the new study and an assistant professor in the Department of Applied Mathematics at CU Boulder. “It’s the night before the primary, and they still have not made a decision about who they’re going to vote for. That suggests that they have received some evidence that’s in conflict with voting for Sanders.”

    Kilpatrick will present his team’s results remotely at a meeting of the American Physical Society. (The physical conference has been canceled due to public health concerns).

    His team’s research zeroes in on a major question in a field of study called decision-making theory: How people make choices based both on their own, private research—such as watching televised debates—and through their social interactions—say, checking out their friends’ posts on social media.

    Kilpatrick compared that goal to the classic battle of wits between Vizzini and the Dread Pirate Roberts in the 1987 film The Princess Bride. In that scene, the pirate claims to have poisoned one of two glasses of wine. Vizzini, a scofflaw of supposedly vast intellect, must choose the one he thinks is safe to drink. 

    It gets complicated.

    “What Vizzini says is that he knows what the Dread Pirate Roberts knows that he knows,” Kilpatrick said. “But he takes multiple loops through what we call a ‘common knowledge’ exchange before he makes the decision on the wine glasses.”

    To explore similar kinds of intellectual spirals, Kilpatrick and his colleagues used a series of equations, or mathematical models, to simulate social interactions of varying complexity. Their models didn’t revolve around real-life voters, or even pirates, but “rational agents”—theoretical deciders who always make the right choices based on the evidence available to them. 

    “We’re both watching the same news show, for example, and I look over to you to see if you’ve made a decision or not,” Kilpatrick said. “We have to account for our common knowledge multiple times until we’ve adequately squeezed all of the information that we can out of the fact that you haven’t made a decision yet, and I haven’t made a decision yet.”

    Eventually, it stops. One voter or group of voters in a network might finally receive enough information to feel confident about their choice

    Kilpatrick is quick to note that, of course, no voter is perfectly rational. But scientists can still learn a lot by studying where real-life humans fall in line with what theory suggests they should do—and where they don’t.

    People should also always try to be aware of the baggage that others in their social networks carry, he added. 

    “When we’re determining how political leaders or people in our networks make decisions,” Kilpatrick said, “we should think hard about how those individuals are biased in order to figure out what we should take away from their decisions.”

     

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  • Cheaper Gas Coming Soon

    Cheaper Gas Coming Soon

    Colorado pump prices to dip by at least a quarter.

    DENVER (Dec. 19, 2019) – Good news, Colorado: AAA forecasts that Centennial State motorists will enjoy some of the country’s most significant savings on gas heading into the new year, with pump prices expected to plummet by as much as a quarter in the coming weeks. The reason? Increasing gasoline stocks coupled with an anticipated seasonal demand drop will together drive prices down.

    Regional gasoline stocks have averaged 7 million barrels since early October, per data from the Energy Information Administration. Refinery utilization rates, meanwhile, have hovered around 85 percent or higher. Those two factors, combined with the seasonal switch-over to winter-blend gasoline – which is cheaper to produce and sell – are driving down gas prices.

    “Pump prices are finally trending downward in Colorado in what has been an abnormally expensive regional gas market, of late,” said AAA Colorado spokesman Skyler McKinley. “The even better news is that 2019’s prices are down nearly a dime from 2018, thanks in large part to cheaper crude oil prices.”

    On a year-to-date basis, Colorado’s 2019 statewide average for a gallon of regular unleaded is $2.57, down from $2.68 in 2018. Gas prices hit their highest point in June, at $2.87, and their lowest in February, at $2.01. Colorado has enjoyed the cheapest gas prices of any state in AAA’s Rockies analysis region – comprising Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. 

    Oil Market Dynamics

    Colorado’s anticipated savings may be short-lived.

    While crude oil prices have consistently fallen year-over-year, they may hover consistently above $60 per barrel as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners continue to reduce production, lowering global supply.

    Earlier this month, OPEC and other major global producers, including Russia, announced an agreement to cut their total crude production by an additional 500,000 barrels per day beginning on January 1, 2020. This new agreement will likely remain in effect, without amendment, until the next OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria on March 5. 

    “This reduction in global crude supply will help drain the market, which will likely otherwise be oversupplied during the first half of next year,” McKinley said. “This could lead to more expensive crude oil and gas prices in mid-to-late January as compared to the start of recent years, assuming crude demand remains robust.”

    Colorado Gas By the Numbers

     Durango

    • Current Average: $2.57
    • Yesterday Average: $2.58
    • Week Ago Average: $2.57
    • Month Ago Average: $2.65
    • Year Ago Average: $2.54

    Denver

    • Current Average: $2.68
    • Yesterday Average: $2.69
    • Week Ago Average: $2.72
    • Month Ago Average: $2.74
    • Year Ago Average: $2.29

    Colorado Springs

    • Current Average: $2.70
    • Yesterday Average: $2.70
    • Week Ago Average: $2.75
    • Month Ago Average: $2.75
    • Year Ago Average: $2.34

    Pueblo

    • Current Average: $2.73
    • Yesterday Average: $2.74
    • Week Ago Average: $2.83
    • Month Ago Average: $2.87
    • Year Ago Average: $2.52

    Boulder-Longmont

    • Current Average: $2.73
    • Yesterday Average: $2.73
    • Week Ago Average: $2.76
    • Month Ago Average: $2.75
    • Year Ago Average: $2.30

    Greeley

    • Current Average: $2.74
    • Yesterday Average: $2.75
    • Week Ago Average: $2.78
    • Month Ago Average: $2.79
    • Year Ago Average: $2.37

    Fort Collins-Loveland

    • Current Average: $2.76
    • Yesterday Average: $2.77
    • Week Ago Average: $2.78
    • Month Ago Average: $2.79
    • Year Ago Average: $2.40

    Grand Junction

    • Current Average: $2.80
    • Yesterday Average: $2.81
    • Week Ago Average: $2.86
    • Month Ago Average: $2.89
    • Year Ago Average: $2.57

    Glenwood Springs

    • Current Average: $3.09
    • Yesterday Average: $3.09
    • Week Ago Average: $3.13
    • Month Ago Average: $3.16
    • Year Ago Average: $2.83

    Vail

    • Current Average: $3.19
    • Yesterday Average: $3.20
    • Week Ago Average: $3.24
    • Month Ago Average: $3.29
    • Year Ago Average: $2.84

    Winter Fuel & Driving Tips

    As you hit the road this winter, AAA offers these tips to help conserve fuel and keep motorists safe:

     

    • As a precaution, keep at least half a tank of fuel in your vehicle at all times. It helps to reduce condensation in the fuel system. It also helps ensure an adequate reserve of fuel to run the engine for heat should your car become disabled in a remote location.
    •  
    • Optimize your daily driving.  Maintain steady speeds. A car uses extra fuel accelerating.  Cruise control may be a fuel saving option for motorists who drive a lot because a steady speed conserves fuel.  This is helpful when driving on level roads.  Cruise control, however, hurts mileage if you drive on hilly terrain.  
    • Minimize last-minute braking. Anticipate traffic conditions. Be alert for slow-downs and red lights and coast up to them, if possible. Drive smoothly, avoiding “jackrabbit starts.” The faster you drive, the more fuel used. Remember, however, that traveling slower than traffic flow can cause a safety hazard.
    •  
    • Don’t haul extra weight in the passenger compartment or trunk.   Reducing extra weight can save up to 2% fuel economy for every 100 lbs. removed depending on the weight of the vehicle. Also lose the roof rack, if not used regularly. Carrying things on a roof rack increases aerodynamic drag and reduces fuel economy – year-round.
    • Look into discounts. For example, AAA members can now save 30 cents per gallon on their first fill up, and 5 cents per gallon on every other fill-up, by signing up for the Fuel Rewards program by December 31, 2019. More information at com/Shell

    • Be sure to pack an emergency roadside kit in your car containing a mobile phone and car charger, first-aid kit, blankets, drinking water and snacks, a flashlight with extra batteries, a basic toolkit, warning flares, an ice scraper, jumper cables and a shovel.

     

    About AAA Colorado

    More than 695,000 members strong, AAA Colorado is the state’s greatest advocate for the safety and security of all travelers. As North America’s largest motoring and leisure travel organization, AAA provides more than 60 million members with travel, insurance, financial, and automotive-related services — as well as member-exclusive savings. A not-for-profit organization since its founding in 1923, AAA Colorado has been recognized as the number one Colorado company its size for its advocacy, community engagement, and corporate social responsibility efforts – and is a proud member of Points of Light’s “The Civic 50 Colorado,” recognizing the 50 most community-minded companies in the state. For more information, visit AAA.com.

     

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