FORT COLLINS, COLORADO ­– The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active. This heightened level of hurricane activity was relatively well anticipated by Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project. The season broke the single-season Atlantic named storm record with 30 named storms and also featured 13 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes – both the second most on record. Twelve named storms, of which six were at hurricane strength, made landfall in the continental United States with the strongest of these hurricanes being Category 4 Hurricane Laura, which made landfall in southwest Louisiana.

“The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active, especially when evaluated by named storm frequency and the number of tropical cyclones hitting the United States. Overall, our seasonal forecasts somewhat underestimated the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes but were quite accurate for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE),” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the forecast. Accumulated Cyclone Energy is an integrated metric accounting for intensity and duration of storms. Seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was approximately 170 percent of the 1981-2010 average. The latter part of the season was extremely active, with four of the six major hurricanes that formed in 2020 occurring in October-November. No season on record prior to 2020 had more than two Atlantic major hurricane formations in October-November.

The report summarizes all tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the 2020 hurricane season and compares the team’s seasonal and two-week forecasts to what occurred.

When evaluated against ACE, the season was slightly more active than anticipated with the early April, June and July forecasts. El Niño conditions were not expected with any of the outlooks; however, La Niña was not anticipated to be as strong as it ended up being during the season. Consequently, vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean was even weaker than was thought with the early outlooks. However, by early August, the Tropical Meteorology Project forecast an extremely active season, due in part to weak vertical wind shear during July in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Weak vertical wind shear was likely the primary reason why October-November 2020 was so active in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

The tropical Atlantic and Caribbean were also much warmer than normal during the hurricane season. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures enhance Atlantic hurricane formation through several mechanisms. Warm sea surface temperatures provide more fuel for developing tropical cyclones. They also tend to be associated with lower pressure and moister mid-level air, which also enhance hurricane activity.

The Colorado State team was founded by the late William Gray. CSU’s initial forecast for the 2020 season was issued on April 2 and called for an above-average hurricane season. The team called for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The CSU team slightly increased its forecast on June 4 and called for 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The July 7 forecast increased the projected numbers slightly and called for 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The numbers were raised again with the August 5 update and predicted 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Observed activity was 30 named storms, 13 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The team predicted a well above-average ACE of 150 on April 2, increased its ACE forecast to 160 on June 4 and July 7 and raised its forecast ACE to an extremely high 200 on August 5. Observed ACE through November 30 was 180. The 1981-2010 average Atlantic ACE was 106.

The team bases its annual forecasts on 60 years of historical data and includes factors such as Atlantic sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures, levels of vertical wind shear (the change in wind direction and speed with height), El Niño (an anomalous warming of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific) and other factors. While these forecast factors generally work well and explain approximately 50-60 percent of the year to year hurricane variability in these 60 years of historical data, there remains 40-50 percent of this variability which is not explained.

Hurricane statistics for 2020 contained in the report include:

• 30 named storms formed in the Atlantic this season. This is the most on record, eclipsing the old record of 28 named storms set in 2005.
• The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season had the earliest forming ‘C’ named storm and the earliest named storm formation from the ‘E’ storm onwards.
• 10 named storms formed in September. This is the most September named storm formations on record, breaking the old record of 8 named storms set in 2002, 2007 and 2010.
• 12 Atlantic named storms made landfall in the continental US in 2020 – the most on record. The prior record was 9 named storm landfalls in the continental US set in 1916.
• Hurricane Laura made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. Laura is tied with the Last Island Hurricane of 1856 for the strongest winds for a Louisiana hurricane landfall on record.
• Hurricane Iota made landfall in Nicaragua with maximum sustained winds of 135 kt – the strongest November landfalling hurricane in Nicaragua on record.

The TMP has attributed the upturn in major hurricane activity since 1995 as well as the earlier increase in major hurricane activity from the late 1940s through the mid-1960s to natural multi-decadal variability in the strength of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A concomitant increase in several favorable hurricane-enhancing parameters occur in the tropical Atlantic during the positive phase of this oscillation – while these same parameters tend to suppress hurricanes during the negative phase of this oscillation.

The Tropical Meteorology Project has been issuing forecasts for the past 37 years. A brief qualitative outlook for the 2021 hurricane season will be issued on Thursday, December 10, with a first full forecast issued in early April 2021.

 

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The CDPHE Vital Records Office will be closed to in-person customers beginning Monday, November 30, 2020 until further notice. Customers needing Vital Records services are directed to the following website at https://cdphe.colorado.gov/vitalrecords. Customers with any questions can call (303) 692-2200.

Because of the rise in COVID-19 cases, CDPHE urges all Coloradans to avoid in-person interactions with people from other households. Coloradans should also wear a mask and physically distance when participating in essential in-person activities that cannot be done remotely. 

 

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Legislative Leaders & Governor Stepping Up to Provide COVID Relief

DENVER –  Governor Jared Polis shared specifics of the scope of the Special Session of the 72nd General Assembly, scheduled to commence on Monday, November 30 at 10am. 

“We are living in a moment of unprecedented urgency,” said Governor Polis.“We will act to support our small businesses who face challenging months ahead, provide relief to hardworking people, support child care, and improve broadband access for students and educators. I thank legislative leadership for their support and collaboration during this challenging time for our state.”

Earlier this week, the Governor and Legislative Leadership announced they would take up critical legislation that will help Colorado families and small businesses during the challenging winter months ahead. 

“We have a responsibility to do everything we can to help our state recover from this pandemic, but if we don’t act now, more businesses will close and families may lose their homes,” said Speaker KC Becker, D-Boulder. “Colorado restaurants, families, and communities can’t wait any longer for additional federal aid. Our stimulus package will deliver relief for Colorado’s restaurants, help parents find safe child care options, and provide direct assistance for Coloradans who are struggling to pay their rent or mortgage.”

“The COVID-19 pandemic has taken an enormous toll on our community – draining our resources, isolating us from the people we love, and destroying our businesses that took years to create. But unfortunately, this relentless disease isn’t letting up any time soon. We need a stimulus package to carry us through the winter and alleviate the unimaginable burden weighing on so many Coloradans, ” said Senate President Leroy Garcia, D-Pueblo. “I am incredibly proud of the unity and urgency our state leadership has shown in calling this special session and I look forward to the work we will be able to do on behalf of Colorado.” 

The Governor presented seven areas for the General Assembly to take action:

Small Business Relief: Small businesses, including bars and restaurants, gyms and fitness studios, and entertainment venues have struggled to stay open at lower capacities, making it difficult to pay their staff and rent. These small businesses will need direct support and tax relief to make it through the challenging fall and winter  months. The call requests the General Assembly take action, including by providing relief from sales tax payments for bars and restaurants, and direct aid for various business types.   Child

Care Support: The COVID-19 pandemic has burdened child care providers, which we know are crucial to building and sustaining a thriving economy by enabling families to work and preparing children for school. Based on a recent survey, at least 26% of child care facilities in Colorado may close permanently, without financial support, due to the pandemic.

Housing and Direct Rental Assistance: Because of the federal Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans for small businesses, enhanced unemployment benefits, and direct payments to Americans, we avoided a significant wave of housing evictions and foreclosures.  Now, though, the expiration of these programs leaves vulnerable Coloradans at risk of eviction or foreclosure in the coming months. 

“Colorado families, restaurants, bars and small businesses can’t wait any longer for help–they need relief to get through the challenging months ahead,” said Speaker-designate Alec Garnett, D-Denver. “We are going to pass targeted legislation that helps families avoid eviction and small businesses stay open to sustain our recovery and help Coloradans who have been hit hardest by the pandemic. I look forward to working with lawmakers in both parties to build back stronger and ensure every Coloradan has a fair shot to succeed as our economy recovers.”

“With the coronavirus surging to an all-time high and winter fast approaching, we need solutions that will help Coloradans survive these next few months. And this special session gives us the opportunity to do just that. From housing assistance to childcare support to small business relief, we are prioritizing direct financial aid for the folks who have been hit hardest by the pandemic,” said Senate Majority Leader Steve Fenberg, D-Boulder. 

Increasing Broadband Access: While the majority of school districts are learning in person, the most recent increase in cases has forced many school districts, including many Denver metro area school districts, to switch to remote learning. Without broadband or wi-fi, these students will face significant learning loss that will have implications for their future academic careers and lifetime earnings. 

Food Insecurity: Demand for food assistance via food pantries and food banks has increased as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The demand appears to be correlated with the unemployment and furloughs through the service sector, as well as school and camps closures, and is not anticipated to abate in the short-term.  Meanwhile, food pantries’ food resources were often stretched prior to the Pandemic and economic fallout.  As dollars available to hunger relief through the CARES Act and Families First Coronavirus Relief Act (FFRCA) end in December 2020, no new federal funding is currently available to replace these funds. 

Utilities Assistance: Heading into the winter, many Coloradans are unemployed, underemployed, or unable to find new work all while having little to no savings and growing expenses due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  This segment of the population now qualify as low-income, and are at risk of not being able to afford their utility bills over the coming months. Energy Outreach Colorado applications are up 25% compared to the same time last year, and funding allocated by the General Assembly during the prior legislative session will be distributed by December 4, 2020. 

Public Health Response: As the pandemic has entered its third wave in Colorado, additional funds are needed immediately to continue the State’s robust public health response. The call includes a request for funds to ensure the State can continue to protect public health while we await additional federal stimulus and reimbursement from the Federal Emergency Management Agency. 

Read Governor Polis Executive Order on the 2020 Special Session.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) provided guidance to the Colorado General Assembly to convene as safely as possible for the 2020 Special Session.

In addition, today the Governor also amended the disaster emergency declaration due to COVID-19 in Colorado to make additional funds available for response activities. The Governor also extended Executive Orders temporarily suspending certain regulatory statutes due to the presence of COVID-19, addressing marriage licenses, and extending a moratorium on evictions. 

 

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