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Easter Cheer
With the help of a charitable I-70 Corridor business woman, Adams County Sheriff’s Office deputies spread some Easter cheer throughout Bennett and Strasburg earlier in the week despite the ongoing battle against coronavirus. Thanks to donations from Bennett business owner Jackie Dieter, deputies handed out approximately 25 Easter baskets to youngsters April 6. “I was blown away with the generosity and how much stuff I had to pack into my vehicle,” said Adams County Deputy Mandy Anderson, who stopped by the office of The I-70 Scout Monday morning to show off her bounty of holiday goodies. -
When what-if scenarios turn real: CSU pandemic modeler provides COVID-19 insights on health care workers
As a Yale University postdoctoral researcher, economist Jude Bayham studied the potential consequences of a global pandemic that could shutter schools, close businesses, and strain hospitals.
That was back in 2013.
Now, as the world grapples with the coronavirus, the Colorado State University economist and a multi-institutional team are turning those prescient modeling exercises into real insights for policymakers.
“We’re repurposing models we had done a while back that frankly at the time, people didn’t really care about,” said Bayham, assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. “It’s an ‘I told you so’ moment. I’m not happy about it. It’s unfortunate.”
In the last several weeks, Bayham and Yale collaborator Eli Fenichel have run a series of analyses illustrating the toll that long-term school closures may have on U.S. health care providers. They’re now fielding inquiries from all over the world, from state governments to child care needs assessment professionals, who think the economists’ work could help them navigate the here and now. In the last two weeks, the researchers created an interactive dashboard for drilling down statistics on child care needs by state, city and industry sector. Their data were published in The Lancet Public Health.
Bayham and Fenichel have also created another dashboard for viewing COVID-19 complication risk factors in the workforce.
A third of health workers care for young children
For their health care worker analysis, the researchers used data from the U.S. Current Population Survey to show that about a third of health care workers – doctors, nurses, hospital staff – care for children ages 3-12. Fifteen percent of those households don’t have other adults or older children who can help with child care.
At the time they did their original analysis, a long-term school closure was a far-off hypothetical. Now, as school districts nationwide shutter for weeks or months, Bayham’s work of yore takes on new significance, and the team is scrambling to update it with current figures.
School closures are intended to slow the transmission of the virus. But Bayham and Fenichel find that the toll school closures take on health care workers could potentially negate any mortality benefits from the closures. Their calculations indicate that if the health care workforce declines by 15 percent, due to the workers now having to care for their children, it could lead to an increase in coronavirus deaths, because the workers aren’t there to care for sick people. Specifically, they report that assuming a 15 percent loss of the health care labor force, a coronavirus infection mortality rate increase of just 0.35 percentage points would net a greater number of deaths than would be prevented by the closures.
These calculations are just that – calculations, which don’t take into account, for example, the potential rollout of state or federal programs to offer child care relief to workers. And the estimates aren’t perfect; the researchers don’t claim to know, down to a precise number, what one health care worker’s absence portends.
“We don’t know, in terms of a productivity measure, the estimate of one nurse saving this many lives or reducing mortality,” Bayham said. “But we think it’s not zero. So essentially we are getting at how productive they need to be for us to be concerned about how school closures would undermine the goal of saving lives.”
The work is a sobering reminder of the societal and public-health tradeoffs of large-scale disruptions like long-term school closures.
Forming networks
As the pandemic continues to unfold, Bayham and colleagues at Yale, Northwestern University and other institutions have quickly formed a network of economists and epidemiologists to continue this and other lines of work. They hope to help inform decisionmakers on questions not only of tradeoffs of school closures, but also, strategies for peeling back such restrictive measures when the time is right.
As researchers all over the world converge their expertise around the pandemic, Bayham and colleagues are also jumping into other projects to help. For example, Bayham is serving on a U.S. Forest Service task force that will examine potential outcomes of coronavirus on firefighters as fire season returns.
And along with CSU colleagues Becca Jablonski, Dawn Thilmany, Rebecca Cleary, Rebecca Hill, Alexandra Hill, Laura Bellows, Bob Delmore and Michael Carolan, Bayham is also serving on a Colorado Department of Agriculture-focused task force looking at effects of social distancing measures on food supply chain issues. CSU’s vice president for engagement and extension, Blake Naughton, established the CSU Task Force on Colorado Food Supply to conduct research on several key areas: food access and security; designating food retail establishments as “essential services;” food supply chain workforce readiness; and consumer expenditure and farm market access.
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Help document nature in your area as part of global initiative: 2020 City Nature Challenge
City Nature Challenge 2020 is an international effort to find and document plants and wildlife across the globe.
DENVER – From April 24 through 27, Colorado residents are encouraged to go outside in their neighborhood to photograph and identify plants and animals using the free iNaturalist app as part of a global initiative called the City Nature Challenge.
City Nature Challenge 2020 is an international effort to find and document plants and wildlife across the globe. Cities are encouraging their citizens to get outside in whatever way is safe for each region and document the plants and animals in their surroundings. The City Nature Challenge is organized by the California Academy of Sciences and the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County.
The City Nature Challenge and COVID-19
In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the City Nature Challenge has made some modifications to the annual event to help keep organizers and participants safe. Although it has been promoted as a friendly competition in previous years, this year it’s about embracing the healing power of nature. Participants should safely document biodiversity in whatever way they can, even from the safety of their own homes if necessary. Participants are urged to carefully follow public health guidelines provided by your local governments, as they are changing in real-time. Individual safety and public health is of utmost priority.
Citizen Science and the iNaturalist app
To participate in this collaborative effort, download the free iNaturalist app, join the project, then get outside and start taking pictures of nature around you. By participating, you will be embracing the healing power of nature while also contributing crucial data about Colorado’s unique biodiversity. Scientists can then use this information to make important decisions about how to protect and improve Colorado’s nature.
The iNaturalist app that people use to identify species during the City Nature Challenge has been part of Colorado Parks and Wildlife’s efforts to engage citizen scientists over the past few years.
In just under four years, the app has documented more than 91,000 observations of nature in Colorado’s 41 state parks. The new technology is helping CPW biologists track the wildlife resources, and in some cases, even contributing toward furthering important research.
From April 28 – May 3, users who identify photos of wildlife down to the species level will count toward the point tally.
Colorado nonprofits and government agencies like Colorado Parks and Wildlife, The Nature Conservancy, the WILD Foundation, MetroDNA, Denver Botanical Gardens, and Denver Audubon all see the value in this effort to connect people to their environment and reap the benefits of crowd-sourced citizen science.
“We have so much amazing nature in and around Denver, that we encourage people to explore their backyards and neighborhoods to discover incredible wildlife,” said Chris Hawkins, urban conservation program manager for The Nature Conservancy in Colorado. “Not only will participants be having fun outside, but they will also be making valuable scientific contributions that will help The Nature Conservancy as we work to create a thriving region for people and nature.”
“As a mom of two young children who have now transitioned to online learning, I am so excited about the opportunity to engage them in a community science project that gets us outdoors in our own neighborhood,” said Kate Hogan of Denver Audubon. “The iNaturalist.org app is easy to use, and even my 4-year-old knows how to take pictures with my cell phone, so each one of us can be involved!”
“The City Nature Challenge is an extraordinary opportunity for individuals to connect to the wild nature that surrounds them; something that is essential considering we live in this time of rapid human development, species extinction, and disconnection with nature,” said Melanie Hill, Director of Communications & Outreach at the WILD Foundation. “This event offers a fun and easy way for people of all ages to get to know these wild beings and understand not only what they need to survive, but thrive.”
“Plant and wildlife enthusiasts from across the region can participate simply by staying at home and helping to identify species through the iNaturalist program,” said Jennifer Neale, Director of Research & Conservation for Denver Botanic Gardens.
“The City Nature Challenge offers Metro Denver residents, especially kids and families, a chance to get outdoors in a way that contributes not only to our shared knowledge of the region’s biodiversity but to their physical and mental health,” said Dana Coelho, Metro DNA Director and co-lead of Safe Summer Kick Off on Get Outdoors Day, a Southwest Denver-based partnership inspired by and connected to the statewide Get Outdoors Colorado coalition of partners.
“At its core, it’s a citizen science project that is trying to engage as many people as possible to record the diversity of life wherever they happen to be,” said CPW Forest Management Coordinator Matt Schulz. “Anyone can participate with this challenge, just by observing what is outside their door, whether it’s the tree that lines your street or the bird stopping over to find a bit of food.”
Colorado state parks are a great place to be outdoors, as well as a great place to participate in the City Nature Challenge. But please remember to only visit your neighborhood state parks consistent with public health recommendations. Colorado state parks within this year’s boundaries include: Barr Lake, Boyd Lake, Castlewood Canyon, Chatfield, Cherry Creek, Cheyenne Mountain, Eldorado Canyon,Golden Gate, Lory, Roxborough, St. Vrain and Staunton.
Check CPW’s City Nature Challenge page or the co-organizers page at www.wild.org/naturechallenge for updated information on the City Nature Challenge project.
Details
More information on the City Nature Challenge is available at: https://citynaturechallenge.org.
For those interested in the Denver-Boulder Metro area: https://www.inaturalist.org/projects/city-nature-challenge-2020-denver-boulder-metro-area
For those interested in the Colorado Springs area: https://www.inaturalist.org/projects/city-nature-challenge-2020-colorado-springs
For those interested in the Fort Collins/Northern Colorado area: https://www.inaturalist.org/projects/city-nature-challenge-2020-northern-colorado
Stats from last year:
Boulder-Denver Metro Area 2019:
Total observations: 6,374
Total observers: 433
Species identified: 955
Worldwide 2019
Total observations: 963,000+
Total observers: 35,000+
Species identified: 31,000+
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Sun Protection and Skin Cancer Awareness During the COVID-19 Pandemic
What The Skin Cancer Foundation Wants You to Know
New York, NY (April 7, 2020) – The spread of COVID-19 (also known as Coronavirus) has sparked concern worldwide and prompted many leaders to take decisive action to contain the virus. Several states have mandated citizens to stay home from work, socially distance and remain indoors, meaning people have found their time outside has been drastically reduced. Although we may not be exposed to direct sunlight as often, The Skin Cancer Foundation advises everyone to remain vigilant in regard to protecting your skin and checking your body for suspicious lesions.
While spending most of your time indoors, it’s instinctive to gravitate toward places in your home that receive natural light, like windows and skylights. It’s important to exercise caution while enjoying this little slice of the outdoor world, however — sunlight streaming through glass can still harm your skin. Two types of UV light are proven to contribute to the risk for skin cancer: ultraviolet A (UVA), which has a longer wavelength, and ultraviolet B (UVB), which has a shorter wavelength. UVA and UVB rays can cause sunburns and tanning, but UVA rays penetrate deeper into the skin, which can contribute to signs of premature aging, like dark spots and wrinkles. They’re also better at finding you.
“UVA rays can penetrate window glass, meaning you can still be at risk of exposure while inside,” says Deborah S. Sarnoff, MD, president of The Skin Cancer Foundation. “Even when home, it’s important to be cognizant of UV radiation and apply sunscreen to the face and exposed areas of the body.”
For times like this, The Skin Cancer Foundation recommends using a sunscreen with an SPF of at least 15 or higher for daily use, especially if you’re going to be working right by a window. Try placing your sunscreen beside your toothbrush so you have easy access while getting ready in the morning, as it might be difficult to remember to apply when you know you won’t be venturing outside. For indoor workers who receive a significant amount of incidental sun exposure, it’s important to reapply sunscreen, especially before going outside for breaks or errands. You can further protect your skin by pulling down the window shade during peak sun hours (10 AM to 4 PM), installing UV-protective window film and covering up with clothing.
While preventing skin damage that can lead to skin cancer is imperative, now is also a good time to revisit skin cancer warning signs and perform at-home skin exams. The Skin Cancer Foundation recommends you examine your skin head-to-toe every month, and all you need is a bright light, a full-length mirror, a hand mirror, two chairs or stools, a blow-dryer, paper and a pencil. Look for for anything new, changing or unusual on your skin, and reach out to a dermatologist if you see something concerning. You can find more information about skin cancer warning signs and how to perform a self-exam at TheBigSee.org.
If your dermatologist is no longer seeing patients in the office or is extra busy due to COVID-19, see if your doctor offers any teledermatology options. Teledermatology is a rapidly developing subspecialty using the latest technology to allow patients better access to high-quality dermatologic care without traveling to the clinic. If you have a medical emergency, you should still try to get in to see a dermatologist as soon as possible. But for non-emergencies, here’s how you can use teledermatology to help when it comes to skin cancer:
- Take photos on your phone of anything new, changing or unusual on your skin and monitor it over time. There are even apps that will send you a monthly reminder to check on the spot to see if it has evolved.
- Share the photos with your dermatologist who can look them over virtually and provide advice over the phone. They will determine if you need to come into the office or not.
- If you’ve recently been treated for skin cancer, your dermatologist can provide follow-up care over the phone or via video sessions.
image credit: MGN Online
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Colorado Secretary of State’s Office Extends Charity Filing Deadlines
Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold has issued emergency rules extending certain filing deadlines for charities to August 15, 2020. These rules will address the filing deadlines for charity registration renewals and solicitation campaign financial reports. They will not affect the filing deadline for new solicitation notices, which must be filed at least 15 days prior to the commencement of a solicitation campaign.
“Like the IRS, we are extending some filing deadlines for charities,” said Secretary Griswold. “This will enable charities to focus on providing vital services to Coloradans during this time of need.”
Last year, Coloradans donated over $4.6 billion to 7,321 Colorado-based charities. With the extension, charities are required to file their financial statements, Form 990s, and state financial forms to the Secretary of State’s by August 15, 2020. These extensions were granted in light of the IRS extension of certain filing deadlines, which also impacts charities and their ability to prepare documents needed for filings with the Secretary of State.
For the Notice of Temporary Adoption for the Colorado Charities Program Rules (8 CCR 1505-9), please click here. The notice includes the adopted rules, a statement of basis, and statement of justification. For an unofficial copy of the charity rules as adopted and effective on April 3, please click here.
For more information, please visit www.sos.state.co.us.
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Unified Command Group Member Tests Positive to COVID19
A member of the Colorado Unified Command Group (UCG) working at the State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) tested positive for COVID-19. The staff member went through daily medical screenings and was asymptomatic until April 4 when symptoms started. The staff member then contacted executive leadership and self-isolated pending testing arrangements. Test results are positive.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) is conducting a full epidemiological investigation to evaluate the level of exposure in the SEOC. Staff members at the facility were notified tonight. All staff were asked to:
- Evaluate whether or not they worked in the same area of the facility in the last 48 hours following public health guidance for possible exposures.
- Inform supervisors if they had contact or worked near the person before transitioning to remote work following CDPHE guidelines to self-quarantine and monitor for symptoms twice daily (including measuring your temperature) for 14 days.
- If staff were not in close contact with the member they will monitor symptoms daily for the next 14 days. Asymptomatic staff will report to work as previously assigned. Symptomatic staff will stay home and inform supervisors at the SEOC .
For the protection of all staff members the SEOC has a decontamination service clean the facility each evening. The decontamination has been in place for the last two weeks. This will continue.
Monday the SEOC will conduct twice daily medical screening, once in the morning and again mid-day. Daily health screenings were implemented at the beginning of March.
And, consistent with the Governor’s recommendations announced on Friday, UCG is embracing a culture of masking and supports the Colorado Mask Project. Staff are asked to wear a non-medical fabric cover over their mouth and nose when away from home.
image credit: MGN online
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State provides COVID-19 modeling data
The state today released additional COVID-19 modeling data to the public. Governor Jared Polis first provided an in-depth analysis of the data during a press conference on March 27. The state will continue to review data as it evolves to inform future policy decisions.
The modeling data was produced by an expert team that the Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) assembled to assist the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) in understanding the potential course of the pandemic in Colorado.
Drawing on expertise from the ColoradoSPH and the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, and the University of Colorado in Denver and Boulder, a team of volunteer experts modeled the pandemic using approaches tailored to Colorado, updating the modeling as the disease continues to spread in the state.
The team uses a fundamental approach: the SEIR model. The basics of the models are intuitive: prior to infection, individuals are susceptible (S) and once exposed (E) and infected (I) they are contagious, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic; those infected may recover and become resistant (R) or become sufficiently ill to need hospitalization and possibly critical care and to die. This standard model is thus abbreviated as the SEIR model.
Another important number in the model is the reproductive number (R0), that is, the average number of new cases generated per infected person at the beginning of the outbreak. (The Governor has referred to this number as the “R naught.”) If that number exceeds one then the infection will spread. Various figures for R0 have been reported at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic from different parts of the world, ranging from about 2 to 5. The reproductive number depends, in part, on the frequency of contacts between infected and uninfected individuals. The goal of social distancing, which we are all experiencing now, is to reduce these contacts and lower the reproductive number with a target value below one so that contagion ends. A critical question is: How much social distancing is needed to control the epidemic, and how long does it need to be in place?
The tables below provide two sets of numbers provided to CDPHE and the Governor’s Office. The numbers provided are for critical indicators and show the variation by the value of R0 at the beginning of the outbreak and the effectiveness of social distancing at reducing the contact rate, ranging from none to an 80% reduction. When these numbers were calculated, the team found that the R0 value for Colorado was likely above 3. To capture the uncertainty in R0 and the effectiveness of social distancing, estimates are provided for a range of values.
Model R0 3.5 4.0 with SD 0 to 80
The Colorado modeling team has continued to refine its models as the data accumulate on the course of the pandemic. There are other models that provide estimates for Colorado, but those models are not as closely linked to the state’s data.
Continue to stay up to date by visiting covid19.colorado.gov.
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Wildlife activity during stay-at-home order: what to expect
DENVER – Are people seeing more wildlife moving into neighborhoods and parks vacated by people during Colorado’s stay-at-home order? Or are people simply seeing wildlife that’s always around during hours when we are typically at work? A Colorado Parks and Wildlife biologist says the human quarantine would have to continue for years to get wildlife to truly change their behaviors.
CPW has not noticed wildlife activity outside of normal behavior since people began sheltering in place. It will be hard to make any inferences in the short term.
“I think you are going to have short-term movements, but you likely will not see anything drastic,” explains Shannon Schaller, the Senior Wildlife Biologist for CPW’s northeast region. “It takes a while for wildlife to figure it out. It’s an over-time, repeated and learned behavior that generally has to become habitual. I don’t see any real changes coming for wildlife, although individual animals or species are going to be opportunistic.”
In principle, if parks, trails or open spaces are crowded with people, wildlife will go to areas with less disturbance. If urban areas, parks or open spaces that provide food, shelter or water are quiet, you could see wildlife utilizing those areas more.
bobcat kittens from Highlands Ranch “Wildlife learns to adapt to what we are doing and as we change,” Schaller said. “Whether that is being outside more, concentrating in places where we leave trash, or because we avoid an area, then they learn to adapt to that. I would not say that all species adapt instantaneously, it is a learned thing over time, but clearly most wildlife would like to avoid confrontation with people.”
“They do learn to enjoy the benefits people sometimes provide, like illegally leaving out food,” she continued. “But as we slow down or even eliminate our activity in certain areas and they feel the comfort of being able to hunt, eat or rest because we are not there, that’s logical.”
What could be expected given current affairs is that there will be more wildlife observations than what normally takes place. With more people at home looking or being outside, wildlife sightings could go up. This won’t be a new phenomenon, the animals have always been there, but they may have previously gone undetected.
“In Summit County when I got calls about wildlife, most often it was from people who were at home and not working,” said Schaller, recalling her previous days as a wildlife officer. “If you sit at home and now have more eyeballs looking at our neighborhoods and across the landscape, it probably is not an increase in anything, it is just now you are home to see it or have the time to sit and watch.”
CPW does not recommend people report normal wildlife sightings – such as expected behavior of feeding, resting or moving across the landscape – and asking our wildlife officers to respond unnecessarily. Given current affairs, we should not be responding to what is normal behavior. Those calls tie up dispatchers and/or wildlife officers for what otherwise should be for emergency calls only.
urban deer “Clearly something like a mountain lion or bear is something they should call on, especially if it is in close proximity to humans,” Schaller said. “Protect your pets from interacting with all wildlife, do not approach wildlife and leave any newborns you see alone – 99 percent of the time they are not orphaned if their mother is not right there with them.”
People should enjoy the times they get to watch wildlife from safe distances. Colorado’s wildness is a part of what makes our state so great.
This is also a time that can be used as an educational opportunity to learn about nature and wildlife. Colorado Parks and Wildlife has a library of online materials to assist with this. Those learning resources include:
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Gov. Polis Provides Guidance to Municipalities on Local Elections
DENVER – Gov. Polis issued guidance to municipalities across Colorado who are preparing for upcoming elections.
“We want to ensure that Coloradans across our state are able to participate in their local elections and that this pandemic does not impact our democratic process,” said Governor Jared Polis. “It’s critical that Coloradans stay home during this time to the extent they can, but it’s also critical that they exercise their right to vote in all elections whether it’s for your fire district, electric coop, or town. Clerks have been working hard preparing for these elections, and we want to support them and hold them accountable for making sure Coloradans can safely exercise our right to vote.
More than 100 municipal elections are being held on April 7 across Colorado. In an effort to preserve the right to vote in free and fair elections, and building on the work of the Colorado Municipal League (CML) and local elections administrators, Gov. Polis is issuing guidance to local municipalities to ensure that all Coloradans can vote safely. This includes:
- Encouraging absentee methods of voting where possible
- Following the social distance guidance provided in Public Health Order 20-24
- Encouraging early voting and voting during off-peak hours, where voter crowds may be smaller throughout the day
- Drive-up voting or ballot drop off for eligible voters
- Consulting guidance provided by CML and local health agencies regarding how to safely conduct municipal elections
Read the full guidance here. Read CML’s guidance here.
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Now’s the time to submit big-game hunting applications; deadline to apply is April 7
DENVER – Colorado Parks and Wildlife’s on-line hunting license application site is open around-the-clock and hunters are urged not to wait until the last minute to apply for 2020 big-game licenses. Deadline to apply is April 7 at 8 p.m.
“When a high volume of people hit the site on the last day, that can cause system slowdowns and we want to ensure you have the ability to put in for the license you want,” said Rebecca Ferrell, public information and website manager for Colorado Parks and Wildlife. “There’s no reason to wait until the last minute – get online now, spend some quality time with our videos, harvest data and other resources, and be sure your account is set up correctly.”
To apply for a limited big game license, go to cpwshop.com sign in to your account and then click on the “Go Hunting and Fishing” tab in the menu bar at the top of the page. The system is set up to guide hunters easily through the well-defined steps. Hunters must be sure to have their CID number and a valid credit card before beginning the process.
Hunters should go on line to the Colorado Parks and Wildlife website as soon as possible to apply for limited big-game hunting licenses. Deadline to apply is April 7. Please review the big game section of the CPW site for background information on Colorado’s hunting seasons and how to apply. The web pages include harvest statistics from the 2019 seasons for all big-game species, seasons and units.
You can also call CPW’s hunt planners at 303-297-1192 if you have questions. Please note that call-wait times may be lengthy as our staff is complying with current stay-at-home orders.
Although all CPW offices are closed to the public because of the coronavirus pandemic, staff members are available to answer questions. Phone numbers and contact information are posted at all CPW offices for direct staff assistance.
Hunters are also reminded that they are required to purchase a “qualifying license” before submitting an application. You’ll be prompted to make that purchase as you start the application process.
For first-time hunters who have not completed a hunter education class, an apprentice certificate is available to those who are able to hunt with a mentor. Those who hunted last year with an apprentice license can obtain a second certificate. But previous year’s apprentice certificates will not be renewed automatically; you need to go to cpwshop.com and add a new profile before applying for a limited license.
“Everything you need to apply is at your fingertips,” Ferrell said. “So please get your application in now and get ready for the fall hunting season.”
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